Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -120 SJSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +1 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -4.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -0.1 (+0.9) | 139.9 (-22.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -1.2 (-0.2) | 145.6 (-28.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -1.3 (-0.3) | 144.9 (-27.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -0.2 (+0.8) | 139.5 (-22.5) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | PAC 80 – 67 SJSU |
| Dec 11, 2021 | SJSU 78 – 66 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-10 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#205) | -0.5 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#302) | 1.89 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#275) | 2.33 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#339) | 0.567 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 11.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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