Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -3.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -3.3 (+8.7) | 132.0 (+12.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -2.7 (+9.3) | 133.0 (+11.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -3.7 (+8.3) | 133.8 (+10.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -0.1 (+12.1) | 129.6 (+14.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | PAC 80 – 67 SJSU |
| Dec 18, 2022 | PAC 59 – 58 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 3-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-13 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#252) | -2.5 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#179) | -1.89 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#210) | -2.49 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#163) | 0.340 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 13.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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