Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | HARV -500 HOW +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +12 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -16.4 (-28.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -11.7 (-23.7) | 134.6 (-14.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -12.0 (-24.0) | 134.5 (-14.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -12.0 (-24.0) | 136.1 (-16.1) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -12.6 (-24.6) | 136.8 (-16.8) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2021 | HARV 77 – 69 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 11-3 |
| Home | 5-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#150) | -10.1 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#156) | -1.25 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#167) | -2.15 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#129) | 0.435 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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