Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -3.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -4.6 (+3.4) | 148.8 (-2.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -6.6 (+1.4) | 148.6 (-2.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -3.1 (+4.9) | 149.4 (-3.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -3.5 (+4.5) | 150.4 (-4.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | HOW 66 – 54 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 16-13 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#177) | 0.8 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#215) | -1.19 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#204) | -1.13 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#216) | 0.398 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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