Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -2000 CAN +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +30 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -19.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -17.0 (+13.0) | 146.2 (+17.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -17.0 (+13.0) | 147.1 (+16.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -18.6 (+11.4) | 146.8 (+17.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -18.2 (+11.8) | 145.7 (+18.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#54) | -5.3 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#64) | -1.79 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#57) | -1.81 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#53) | 0.413 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 18.0% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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