Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | AF -138 TAR +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | AF -4.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -4.9 (+9.1) | 132.1 (+15.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -3.7 (+10.3) | 134.5 (+13.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -5.8 (+8.2) | 134.0 (+14.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -6.1 (+7.9) | 134.8 (+13.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2021 | TAR 67 – 45 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-9 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#165) | 1.0 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#231) | 0.45 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#232) | 0.66 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#289) | 0.551 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 35.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 25.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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