Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 114.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +22 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -9.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 107.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -6.9 (+15.1) | 124.3 (-12.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -7.6 (+14.4) | 118.6 (-6.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -5.8 (+16.2) | 121.6 (-9.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -5.9 (+16.1) | 122.9 (-10.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | AF 81 – 67 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#171) | -4.8 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#303) | 0.26 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#234) | -0.22 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#244) | 0.469 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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