Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | USM -1400 MCN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | USM -28.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -21.7 (-2.7) | 136.4 (+16.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -23.1 (-4.1) | 136.5 (+16.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -25.9 (-6.9) | 137.4 (+15.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -26.0 (-7.0) | 135.5 (+17.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2023 | MCN 67 – 48 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#36) | -12.1 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#22) | -2.41 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#21) | -4.11 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#33) | 0.428 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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