Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -188 BCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -11.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -7.8 (+13.2) | 145.2 (+13.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -7.9 (+13.1) | 142.7 (+16.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -7.9 (+13.1) | 145.7 (+13.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -8.3 (+12.7) | 145.1 (+13.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-10 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#306) | -14.2 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#280) | -1.36 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#241) | -1.87 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#283) | 0.386 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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