Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Save Mart Center · December 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread FRES -9.5 Away covered
O/U 128.5 Under
Money FRES -450 / SAC +400
Model Predictions
Spread Total FRES win
Actual SAC +6 112 Lost
Massey FRES -7.6 (-13.6)
Massey Totals 132.9 (-20.9)
Bradley-Terry 51%
Weighted B-T 73%
Baseline Plus ML FRES -4.9 (-10.9) 133.8 (-21.8) 65%
Baseline ML FRES -5.5 (-11.5) 136.7 (-24.7) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML FRES -5.2 (-11.2) 137.2 (-25.2) 68%
Efficiency Plus ML FRES -8.7 (-14.7) 133.5 (-21.5) 78%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 9, 2024 FRES 6457 SAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FRES SAC
Overall 11-20 14-18
Conference 6-12 7-11
Home 7-7 9-4
Away 4-9 5-10
Neutral 0-4 0-4
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 63.5 66.1
Avg Pts Against 66.0 69.2
Massey 1.1 (#154) -1.5 (#207)
Bradley-Terry -0.90 (#259) 0.00 (#178)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.36 (#203) -0.27 (#196)
RPI 0.445 (#264) 0.533 (#120)
Shooting & Four Factors FRES SAC
FG% 42.7% 45.3%
3PT% 26.7% 38.5%
REB / G 33.9 33.7
OREB / G 9.1 10.2
AST / TO 0.84 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.7% 52.3%
TOV% 20.5% 21.8%
ORB% 28.2% 30.5%
FT Rate 21.0% 21.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.5% 53.0%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 14.9%
DRB% 69.2% 70.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.8% 17.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.