North Carolina A&T
Aggies
67
–
66
OT
FINAL
Neutral
Chris Paul's HBCU Challenge
Texas Southern
Tigers
Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +140 TXSO -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -0.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -0.9 (+1.9) | 138.6 (-5.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -0.4 (+0.6) | 140.9 (-7.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -1.1 (-0.1) | 143.3 (-10.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -1.1 (-0.1) | 140.9 (-7.9) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | NCAT 85 – 79 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#291) | -5.9 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#272) | -0.13 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#237) | -1.15 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#267) | 0.528 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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