Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +400 TXSO -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -10.1 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -6.2 (+12.2) | 142.5 (+21.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -7.1 (+13.1) | 138.2 (+25.8) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -7.5 (+13.5) | 138.8 (+25.2) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -6.2 (+12.2) | 139.1 (+24.9) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | NCAT 67 – 66 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L10 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -15.5 (#354) | -5.3 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.90 (#359) | -1.66 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.70 (#361) | -2.03 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#339) | 0.504 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 34.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 28.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 38.9% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 9.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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