Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -5000 SFPA +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +15 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -24.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -21.9 (-6.9) | 151.5 (+15.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -22.3 (-7.3) | 152.1 (+14.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -19.8 (-4.8) | 152.1 (+14.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -21.8 (-6.8) | 152.2 (+14.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#63) | -11.7 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#21) | -2.90 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#30) | -3.67 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#35) | 0.398 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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