Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GT -1600 ALST +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +36 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | GT -19.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -15.8 (+20.2) | 140.7 (+15.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -15.3 (+20.7) | 141.2 (+14.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -15.2 (+20.8) | 138.9 (+17.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -17.0 (+19.0) | 138.7 (+17.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#140) | -13.0 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#127) | -1.93 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#125) | -2.77 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#99) | 0.416 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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