Betting Lines
| Spread | RICE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | RICE -200 NWST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICE +37 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -0.2 (+37.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICE -0.5 (+36.5) | 154.8 (+28.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICE -1.9 (+35.1) | 156.9 (+26.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICE -1.2 (+35.8) | 156.2 (+26.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICE -3.4 (+33.6) | 153.9 (+29.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | RICE 77 – 75 NWST |
| Dec 16, 2023 | RICE 76 – 51 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#261) | 0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#144) | 2.09 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#145) | 2.09 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#197) | 0.597 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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