Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ +100 INST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +6 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -0.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -2.5 (+3.5) | 153.9 (+24.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -1.8 (+4.2) | 153.7 (+24.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -2.0 (+4.0) | 150.3 (+27.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -2.0 (+4.0) | 152.8 (+25.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#147) | 5.8 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#133) | 1.18 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#139) | 1.38 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#137) | 0.551 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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