The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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56–21 on winners spread MAE 10.5 77 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Central Connecticut @ Manhattan +3.5 138.9 63% 78–67 ✗
Delaware @ Princeton +15.0 140.4 91% 76–69 ✗
Dartmouth @ South Florida +11.6 132.1 85% 55–59 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ St. Bonaventure +3.2 131.4 61% 71–58 ✗
Austin Peay @ Murray State +10.5 130.7 83% 60–68 ✓
Southern @ Youngstown State +11.0 154.5 84% 81–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Tulsa +17.7 135.6 95% 51–66 ✓
Chicago State @ Southern Illinois +13.0 133.0 88% 52–63 ✓
Missouri State @ Oral Roberts +13.0 138.0 88% 77–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Stanford +24.4 127.8 99% 40–85 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette +6.9 156.9 74% 58–69 ✓
Weber State @ Cal Poly +13.0 125.5 88% 74–45 ✗
Indiana @ Kansas +5.6 143.2 69% 62–84 ✓
Saint Francis @ Miami +24.6 154.6 99% 76–91 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ IU Indianapolis +1.6 131.0 56% 70–59 ✗
Missouri @ UCF +4.0 152.0 64% 68–66 ✗
Wake Forest @ Rutgers +15.2 130.8 92% 57–81 ✓
Liberty @ Bryant -2.1 157.9 42% 82–62 ✓
Providence @ Seton Hall +6.3 138.2 72% 71–67 ✗
Montana @ Prairie View A&M -2.6 131.3 41% 81–76 ✓
Gonzaga @ Alabama +5.3 161.4 68% 100–90 ✗
Longwood @ The Citadel -4.3 134.2 35% 75–70 ✓
Towson @ Northern Iowa -8.1 132.2 23% 66–83 ✗
North Florida @ Pittsburgh +14.2 147.3 90% 56–82 ✓
Houston @ Virginia -4.0 108.9 36% 69–61 ✓
Little Rock @ Jacksonville State +9.4 157.3 80% 62–72 ✓
Stetson @ Ohio +2.7 144.1 60% 66–85 ✓
Radford @ Eastern Kentucky -1.1 143.7 46% 65–67 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Gardner-Webb +5.2 127.8 68% 70–72 ✓
Delaware State @ Drexel +15.1 131.9 91% 52–85 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic +28.1 146.6 99% 53–79 ✓
Morehead State @ Mercer +10.5 137.4 83% 52–79 ✓
Troy @ SE Louisiana -4.9 148.6 33% 77–71 ✓
Florida A&M @ Louisville +8.8 129.8 79% 55–61 ✓
UT Martin @ Bowling Green +6.7 156.2 73% 75–67 ✗
La Salle @ Cincinnati +13.9 143.2 90% 60–78 ✓
Indiana State @ Duquesne +2.0 154.4 57% 86–92 ✓
Charlotte @ Monmouth -13.2 129.9 11% 80–46 ✓
DePaul @ Northwestern +10.4 129.2 83% 45–83 ✓
East Carolina @ South Carolina -5.4 133.6 31% 64–56 ✓
Alabama State @ Georgia Tech +18.3 132.7 95% 60–96 ✓
St. John's @ Florida State -8.8 152.7 21% 93–79 ✓
Nicholls @ Mississippi State +24.1 128.8 99% 66–68 ✓
Ohio State @ North Carolina -2.5 159.8 41% 84–89 ✗
Sam Houston @ Texas State -8.9 123.3 21% 69–62 ✓
Samford @ South Carolina State -10.2 160.8 18% 61–62 ✗
Campbell @ Georgia Southern -0.8 133.8 47% 53–54 ✗
Lamar @ UL Monroe +4.6 143.8 66% 59–83 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah +13.0 154.5 88% 101–106 ✓
Northwestern State @ Rice +0.3 161.1 51% 73–110 ✓
North Texas @ Massachusetts -1.6 122.7 44% 62–44 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Oklahoma +21.9 147.9 98% 66–87 ✓
Cornell @ Syracuse +4.5 152.6 66% 63–78 ✓
Toledo @ Marshall +13.0 165.5 88% 85–100 ✓
Tulane @ George Mason -2.2 145.3 42% 56–62 ✗
Illinois State @ Ball State +7.3 140.1 75% 69–83 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Tech +12.8 139.1 88% 52–102 ✓
Bradley @ Arkansas +12.1 130.4 86% 57–76 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Illinois +30.9 152.9 100% 47–68 ✓
Grambling @ Virginia Tech +12.1 132.9 87% 48–74 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Jacksonville +11.9 136.4 86% 63–72 ✓
Western Carolina @ Tennessee Tech +6.7 151.1 73% 75–65 ✗
UC Davis @ Eastern Washington +0.4 149.5 52% 68–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ VCU +12.7 135.5 88% 63–90 ✓
UNC Asheville @ East Tennessee State +0.5 148.3 52% 74–73 ✗
Hampton @ Norfolk State +8.5 150.5 78% 66–78 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bellarmine +10.8 141.4 84% 71–67 ✗
Villanova @ Saint Joseph's -4.8 147.7 33% 71–64 ✓
Lipscomb @ Michigan +13.5 147.3 89% 75–83 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Hartford -4.9 124.2 33% 67–51 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Furman +1.4 157.3 55% 70–72 ✓
San Francisco @ UNLV +12.4 138.6 87% 75–73 ✗
Temple @ Ole Miss +11.6 136.5 85% 55–63 ✓
UCLA @ Kentucky -5.8 144.6 30% 63–53 ✓
Utah @ BYU -8.8 143.7 21% 66–75 ✗
Davidson @ Purdue +18.5 147.5 95% 61–69 ✓
Texas Southern @ North Carolina A&T -0.4 146.4 49% 66–67 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.