I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–13 on winners spread MAE 9.0 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Butler -7.6 140.8 24% 68–46 ✓
Sacramento State @ Fresno State +6.8 132.2 73% 59–53 ✗
San José State @ Pacific +3.3 149.6 62% 58–59 ✓
Winthrop @ LSU +14.3 145.7 90% 81–89 ✓
Nebraska @ Kansas State +9.2 134.5 80% 56–71 ✓
Texas A&M @ Memphis +10.9 149.8 84% 79–83 ✓
Richmond @ Clemson -3.3 133.9 38% 57–85 ✗
Pepperdine @ Grand Canyon +5.4 135.5 69% 73–83 ✓
Portland @ Oregon +8.8 144.9 79% 56–78 ✓
Drake @ Saint Louis +6.7 145.4 73% 75–83 ✓
Wyoming @ Dayton +3.6 128.3 63% 49–66 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +2.2 148.9 58% 55–60 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa +21.2 158.2 97% 75–106 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Wichita State -0.0 126.5 50% 59–49 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Cal State Bakersfield +4.1 122.8 64% 65–59 ✗
Idaho State @ Washington +13.1 132.9 88% 55–90 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Portland State +3.4 145.7 62% 85–73 ✗
Tennessee @ Arizona -1.4 149.4 45% 70–75 ✗
NC State @ Vanderbilt -8.1 146.9 23% 70–66 ✓
Howard @ Harvard +15.8 133.1 93% 66–54 ✗
Canisius @ Penn State +19.4 143.9 96% 67–97 ✓
Stanford @ Texas +8.8 128.0 79% 62–72 ✓
Army @ Stony Brook -0.3 141.1 49% 59–66 ✗
William & Mary @ UMBC +7.3 145.6 75% 62–78 ✓
Western Michigan @ Iowa State +26.5 123.9 99% 57–73 ✓
Merrimack @ Bucknell +16.7 129.6 94% 55–61 ✓
Northeastern @ UIC +8.7 130.8 79% 73–81 ✓
Elon @ Valparaiso +8.3 141.3 77% 66–71 ✓
High Point @ UNC Wilmington +11.1 143.7 84% 82–85 ✓
Niagara @ NJIT -2.5 115.3 41% 53–62 ✗
Belmont @ Chattanooga +11.2 161.4 84% 83–79 ✗
Robert Morris @ Mount St. Mary's +7.9 125.6 76% 68–59 ✗
Rhode Island @ Georgia State +3.7 124.1 63% 66–75 ✓
UAlbany @ Loyola Chicago +13.6 138.8 89% 56–68 ✓
Long Island University @ James Madison +37.8 150.1 100% 79–115 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's -6.8 135.9 27% 56–63 ✗
Norfolk State @ North Carolina A&T -3.0 146.6 39% 70–66 ✓
Green Bay @ Oregon State +18.5 123.1 95% 56–65 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Eastern Michigan -3.3 169.7 38% 77–79 ✗
McNeese @ Southern Miss +27.5 130.6 99% 67–86 ✓
Tarleton State @ Air Force +5.9 131.8 70% 67–81 ✓
Oakland @ Boise State +28.1 143.9 99% 57–77 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ UTSA +11.4 145.0 85% 69–90 ✓
Southern @ UAB +15.2 159.1 92% 66–92 ✓
Texas Southern @ Hampton -6.8 146.5 27% 82–77 ✓
Cleveland State @ Loyola Marymount +8.0 134.0 77% 59–70 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Colorado +20.5 157.7 97% 77–88 ✓
California @ Santa Clara +15.5 129.1 92% 62–71 ✓
Buffalo @ West Virginia +25.7 150.8 99% 78–96 ✓
Auburn @ USC +0.2 137.8 51% 71–74 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgia -0.0 128.8 50% 62–77 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ TCU +24.1 127.3 99% 43–88 ✓
Central Michigan @ Missouri State +10.1 129.9 82% 58–79 ✓
Alcorn State @ Seattle U +12.2 148.5 87% 58–72 ✓
Iona @ New Mexico +2.1 146.7 58% 74–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.