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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–3 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lehigh
@
Wisconsin
|
+24.3 | 129.8 | 99% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Stony Brook
@
Wagner
|
+13.1 | 129.0 | 88% | 55–58 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+7.4 | 140.9 | 75% | 82–73 | ✗ |
Louisiana
@
McNeese
|
-10.2 | 140.5 | 18% | 78–70 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Nicholls
|
+2.0 | 156.2 | 57% | 73–88 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Colorado
|
+23.6 | 156.1 | 98% | 60–84 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Santa Clara
|
-2.6 | 140.8 | 41% | 74–86 | ✗ |
Seattle U
@
Oregon State
|
-3.7 | 135.0 | 37% | 58–73 | ✗ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Incarnate Word
|
+5.9 | 132.9 | 70% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Georgetown
|
-11.1 | 163.2 | 16% | 102–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.