Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +380 XAV -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +13 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -11.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (+28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -8.2 (-4.8) | 156.1 (+34.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -9.8 (-3.2) | 155.3 (+35.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -9.2 (-3.8) | 159.3 (+31.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -9.6 (-3.4) | 160.9 (+30.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | XAV 91 – 84 GTWN |
| Dec 21, 2025 | XAV 80 – 77 GTWN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | XAV 74 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GTWN 69 – 63 XAV |
| Mar 3, 2024 | XAV 98 – 93 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 15-5 |
| Home | 5-12 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-11 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#241) | 12.6 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#232) | 1.64 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#222) | 2.66 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#197) | 0.578 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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