Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -10000 UNA +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +24 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -22.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -18.6 (+5.4) | 151.6 (-7.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -19.2 (+4.8) | 150.0 (-6.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -17.5 (+6.5) | 151.5 (-7.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -19.8 (+4.2) | 151.2 (-7.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#44) | -6.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#81) | -0.04 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#64) | -0.49 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#37) | 0.469 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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