Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | MTSU -225 UTC +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -7.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -6.5 (-15.5) | 144.7 (+10.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -7.3 (-16.3) | 143.0 (+12.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -6.1 (-15.1) | 142.2 (+12.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -6.8 (-15.8) | 144.5 (+10.5) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 19, 2025 | UTC 109 – 103 MTSU |
| Dec 23, 2021 | UTC 77 – 65 MTSU |
| Dec 8, 2020 | UTC 80 – 70 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#96) | 2.3 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#93) | 0.41 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#107) | 0.37 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#80) | 0.537 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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