See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
Murphy Center · December 16, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MTSU -5.5 Away covered
O/U 139.0 Over
Money MTSU -225 / UTC +185
Model Predictions
Spread Total MTSU win
Actual UTC +9 155 Lost
Massey MTSU -7.2 (-16.2)
Massey Totals 140.8 (+14.2)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 87%
Baseline ML MTSU -6.5 (-15.5) 144.7 (+10.3) 73%
Baseline Plus ML MTSU -7.3 (-16.3) 143.0 (+12.0) 75%
Efficiency Plus ML MTSU -6.1 (-15.1) 142.2 (+12.8) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML MTSU -6.8 (-15.8) 144.5 (+10.5) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 19, 2025 UTC 109103 MTSU
Dec 23, 2021 UTC 7765 MTSU
Dec 8, 2020 UTC 8070 MTSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MTSU UTC
Overall 19-14 18-17
Conference 11-9 7-11
Home 12-2 9-7
Away 3-11 6-9
Neutral 4-1 3-1
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.8 75.1
Avg Pts Against 69.0 74.1
Massey 4.4 (#96) 2.3 (#127)
Bradley-Terry 1.11 (#93) 0.41 (#145)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.14 (#107) 0.37 (#153)
RPI 0.564 (#80) 0.537 (#112)
Shooting & Four Factors MTSU UTC
FG% 44.6% 43.5%
3PT% 29.9% 37.8%
REB / G 34.6 35.9
OREB / G 11.8 9.9
AST / TO 0.77 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.8% 53.6%
TOV% 20.7% 20.5%
ORB% 34.3% 29.1%
FT Rate 24.6% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.9% 50.8%
Opp TOV% 24.3% 15.9%
DRB% 76.6% 71.7%
Opp FT Rate 27.8% 17.4%

Game Analysis

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