Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | MTSU -125 UTC +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +10 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -2.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -1.3 (-11.3) | 132.5 (+17.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -0.0 (-10.0) | 136.5 (+13.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -0.6 (-10.6) | 137.9 (+12.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -2.6 (-12.6) | 131.5 (+18.5) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 19, 2025 | UTC 109 – 103 MTSU |
| Dec 16, 2022 | UTC 82 – 73 MTSU |
| Dec 23, 2021 | UTC 77 – 65 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#185) | 2.1 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#206) | 1.86 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#152) | 2.51 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#225) | 0.658 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 28.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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