Hmm, you're so pretty, not to talk to you would be a crime. "Baby, Baby" - The Vibrators
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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57–20 on winners spread MAE 8.5 77 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
App State @ Furman +7.2 146.7 76% 65–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Tennessee State +4.5 127.8 64% 44–70 ✓
Vermont @ Brown +4.1 131.2 67% 70–65 ✗
Army @ NJIT +5.0 141.4 68% 66–49 ✗
High Point @ South Carolina State -4.7 142.7 30% 66–67 ✗
Green Bay @ Kansas City +8.7 133.7 80% 55–64 ✓
Murray State @ Memphis +4.5 144.0 64% 74–72 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Vanderbilt -1.6 135.5 39% 69–58 ✓
DePaul @ Louisville +5.3 145.7 69% 62–55 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ North Dakota State +4.0 131.4 65% 54–68 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Boise State +15.7 145.3 88% 60–97 ✓
Milwaukee @ Colorado +11.5 136.4 86% 54–65 ✓
Nebraska @ Auburn +13.5 158.9 86% 68–99 ✓
Wisconsin @ Ohio State +2.9 140.3 66% 55–73 ✓
BYU @ Creighton -5.0 139.6 28% 71–83 ✗
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech +12.8 150.9 85% 69–78 ✓
Syracuse @ Georgetown +2.7 158.8 59% 75–79 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Delaware State -3.5 134.6 33% 75–61 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +2.6 150.5 58% 65–78 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ VMI +4.0 144.0 67% 61–64 ✓
Charlotte @ Valparaiso +5.4 141.7 70% 68–67 ✗
Temple @ Saint Joseph's +2.3 141.9 56% 49–68 ✓
New Hampshire @ Duquesne +0.7 137.6 50% 62–64 ✓
Florida International @ Eastern Michigan +1.6 142.1 53% 88–92 ✓
Western Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +11.4 146.0 86% 64–83 ✓
Arkansas @ Oklahoma -1.7 143.1 40% 66–88 ✗
Penn State @ Michigan State +11.0 132.9 87% 64–80 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Mercer +3.4 136.9 64% 68–77 ✓
Troy @ Tennessee Tech +5.2 142.7 70% 75–72 ✗
Princeton @ Lafayette -3.9 145.8 32% 84–73 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Western Carolina +2.7 142.8 59% 73–72 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Providence +22.1 139.9 91% 53–68 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UCF +14.6 142.5 87% 68–83 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Tulsa +2.0 130.0 54% 65–69 ✓
Mississippi State @ Colorado State +2.3 148.5 65% 63–66 ✓
Pennsylvania @ La Salle +2.8 141.4 59% 74–76 ✓
Drake @ Clemson +0.6 140.0 51% 80–90 ✓
Austin Peay @ North Florida -3.5 139.6 33% 84–91 ✗
Eastern Washington @ North Dakota -6.9 154.5 23% 76–60 ✓
Maine @ Quinnipiac +16.3 140.5 89% 47–73 ✓
Siena @ Holy Cross -2.2 133.7 36% 72–59 ✓
Canisius @ Youngstown State +11.0 144.2 83% 43–71 ✓
Ohio @ Stetson -4.0 137.4 31% 55–45 ✓
Morgan State @ Longwood +12.6 141.6 86% 55–94 ✓
Hartford @ UNLV +5.2 141.0 69% 78–95 ✓
South Dakota State @ Washington State +7.7 155.2 76% 77–74 ✗
Lamar @ UT Arlington +6.1 141.3 71% 47–56 ✓
Illinois State @ Chicago State +1.4 148.4 53% 81–71 ✗
Towson @ Coppin State -6.1 140.3 23% 89–75 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Jacksonville +8.6 125.6 77% 48–77 ✓
Missouri @ Kansas +22.9 148.7 91% 65–102 ✓
Grambling @ Incarnate Word -0.1 138.6 48% 62–72 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ UConn +7.1 145.8 74% 64–74 ✓
Morehead State @ East Tennessee State +4.2 130.9 65% 75–82 ✓
American University @ Mount St. Mary's +6.5 140.5 74% 72–66 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Butler +18.9 126.8 90% 54–66 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Missouri State +12.0 154.8 84% 60–69 ✓
UTSA @ Sam Houston +2.4 136.9 61% 78–73 ✗
Pacific @ San José State +3.7 133.8 62% 66–78 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Tennessee +19.4 137.5 91% 36–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ South Dakota +3.4 139.8 63% 71–76 ✓
North Texas @ Massachusetts -1.9 139.8 44% 66–57 ✓
UIC @ Central Michigan -4.7 146.0 32% 71–67 ✓
Arizona @ Illinois -3.0 156.6 30% 83–79 ✓
Arkansas State @ Mississippi Valley State -8.8 144.4 19% 82–77 ✓
Boston College @ Saint Louis +6.8 139.5 75% 68–79 ✓
Manhattan @ Utah +12.3 145.0 86% 62–96 ✓
Kentucky @ Notre Dame -3.7 141.1 32% 62–66 ✗
LSU @ Georgia Tech -8.3 136.7 18% 69–53 ✓
Alabama State @ Pepperdine +6.0 153.0 74% 62–79 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Saint Mary's +7.5 131.5 75% 59–80 ✓
Toledo @ Richmond +5.4 150.6 68% 69–72 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Southern +5.5 143.4 69% 66–72 ✓
Boston University @ Dartmouth +0.5 136.9 49% 65–62 ✗
TCU @ Texas A&M +1.7 131.2 59% 68–64 ✗
Bryant @ Stony Brook +6.7 145.0 76% 78–86 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan +5.2 136.8 71% 75–65 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.