Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UNH -0.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -1.2 (+0.8) | 134.2 (-8.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -0.7 (+1.3) | 137.6 (-11.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -0.1 (+1.9) | 137.6 (-11.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -0.6 (+1.4) | 136.6 (-10.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 1-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 3-11 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#270) | 0.3 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#286) | -0.32 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#281) | -0.65 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#269) | 0.505 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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