Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +9 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -8.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-40.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -5.8 (+3.2) | 136.2 (-33.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -6.1 (+2.9) | 141.3 (-38.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -7.0 (+2.0) | 141.1 (-38.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -5.3 (+3.7) | 139.8 (-36.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 2-27 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 0-18 |
| Home | 8-4 | 2-11 |
| Away | 3-13 | 0-18 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L27 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#278) | -9.1 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#237) | -3.61 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#221) | -4.66 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#243) | 0.334 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 26.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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