Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MER -1.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -3.4 (+5.6) | 136.9 (+8.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -4.3 (+4.7) | 131.9 (+13.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.5 (+6.5) | 132.1 (+12.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.9 (+6.1) | 137.2 (+7.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2020 | MER 77 – 75 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#194) | 2.5 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#123) | 0.26 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#142) | 0.47 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#107) | 0.515 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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