Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | GASO +190 MER -220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -15.6 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -7.2 (+5.2) | 134.5 (+17.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -8.5 (+6.5) | 135.1 (+16.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -6.6 (+4.6) | 136.2 (+15.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -7.7 (+5.7) | 134.7 (+17.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | MER 77 – 68 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#276) | 13.1 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#162) | 2.80 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#173) | 4.35 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#212) | 0.823 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 13.3% | 45.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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