Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -27.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +15 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -27.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -24.7 (-9.7) | 137.7 (-16.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -24.1 (-9.1) | 138.5 (-17.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -22.1 (-7.1) | 139.9 (-18.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -22.9 (-7.9) | 136.2 (-15.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 5, 2024 | PROV 59 – 55 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#51) | -13.8 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#12) | -2.11 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.69 (#24) | -3.15 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#8) | 0.392 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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