Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–12 on winners spread MAE 8.1 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama A&M @ Samford +13.0 142.8 87% 50–52 ✓
Marshall @ Eastern Kentucky +4.3 160.4 67% 80–69 ✗
UC Irvine @ Fresno State +2.1 122.9 50% 55–63 ✓
Radford @ James Madison +7.2 132.2 76% 70–79 ✓
Norfolk State @ Wichita State +11.2 135.5 86% 58–71 ✓
Drexel @ Abilene Christian +10.8 150.6 82% 56–73 ✓
New Mexico State @ Loyola Marymount +1.8 145.6 55% 63–58 ✗
Columbia @ UAlbany +6.0 133.4 72% 59–60 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Wake Forest +20.1 147.3 91% 53–79 ✓
Liberty @ Stephen F. Austin -3.5 137.1 40% 51–63 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Robert Morris -5.8 149.9 27% 85–74 ✓
VCU @ Old Dominion -0.9 122.3 39% 75–66 ✓
Montana State @ St. Thomas +2.2 151.1 58% 72–65 ✗
Rice @ Houston Christian -7.1 145.5 25% 88–73 ✓
Elon @ North Carolina +22.5 155.5 91% 63–80 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Omaha -8.6 141.7 19% 87–73 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Ole Miss +3.1 137.7 64% 71–48 ✗
Cincinnati @ Xavier +9.9 133.8 82% 63–83 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UT Martin -4.6 145.3 32% 84–75 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Utah State +15.1 150.1 88% 50–82 ✓
Santa Clara @ California +1.6 142.2 54% 60–72 ✓
Denver @ Utah Tech +1.7 151.3 58% 62–82 ✓
UCLA @ Marquette +0.5 152.8 46% 67–56 ✗
Houston @ Alabama +3.8 145.9 62% 82–83 ✓
Cal Poly @ Portland State +2.1 130.5 55% 61–58 ✗
Idaho @ Cal State Bakersfield +10.7 144.1 86% 58–59 ✓
Utah Valley @ Wyoming +9.8 139.8 81% 62–74 ✓
Miami @ Fordham -1.2 143.9 43% 72–66 ✓
Merrimack @ Indiana +17.6 134.6 89% 49–81 ✓
Colgate @ St. John's +8.0 157.2 78% 64–82 ✓
Florida State @ South Carolina -2.9 138.1 41% 65–66 ✗
Jackson State @ Iowa State +18.6 128.2 90% 37–47 ✓
Davidson @ Northeastern -0.6 132.9 44% 79–69 ✓
Fairfield @ William & Mary -8.1 141.3 19% 70–47 ✓
Purdue @ NC State -13.2 153.9 14% 82–72 ✓
Wofford @ Coastal Carolina +1.7 142.8 54% 59–60 ✓
Hampton @ Loyola Maryland +9.3 130.9 79% 54–67 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston +9.1 146.8 80% 76–78 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Dayton +0.6 132.5 48% 57–62 ✓
Navy @ Marist +0.7 133.4 48% 67–61 ✗
Florida A&M @ Akron +9.1 130.7 79% 66–73 ✓
Villanova @ Baylor +8.1 137.6 76% 36–57 ✓
Kansas City @ SIU Edwardsville +2.3 138.0 60% 56–60 ✓
UTEP @ New Mexico +6.8 145.7 75% 77–69 ✗
Kent State @ West Virginia +9.8 130.1 82% 50–63 ✓
NJIT @ Northwestern +17.2 142.4 89% 52–70 ✓
Florida @ Maryland -7.7 134.0 22% 68–70 ✗
Long Beach State @ USC +23.9 147.7 91% 62–73 ✓
Tennessee State @ Lipscomb +9.9 147.0 83% 73–65 ✗
Green Bay @ Kansas State +17.0 129.7 87% 64–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.