Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +23 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -3.9 (-26.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -2.9 (-25.9) | 139.3 (-20.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -3.1 (-26.1) | 137.7 (-18.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -2.6 (-25.6) | 138.0 (-19.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -2.8 (-25.8) | 140.9 (-21.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#117) | -0.8 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#150) | -0.72 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#139) | -0.97 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#222) | 0.444 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 12.6% |
Game Analysis
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