Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +6 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -2.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -3.5 (-2.5) | 142.9 (-4.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -1.2 (-4.8) | 143.9 (-5.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.2 (-4.8) | 144.7 (-6.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -1.6 (-4.4) | 144.4 (-6.4) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#168) | 2.6 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#191) | 1.06 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#182) | 1.04 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#208) | 0.553 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.