Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -9.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -7.7 (+9.7) | 134.0 (+4.0) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -6.4 (+8.4) | 134.6 (+3.4) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -7.4 (+9.4) | 137.0 (+1.0) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -7.6 (+9.6) | 135.0 (+3.0) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 27, 2025 | FLA 87 – 71 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#142) | 10.8 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#182) | 1.49 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#151) | 1.58 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#156) | 0.535 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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