Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +23 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -9.4 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -8.7 (-14.3) | 136.8 (-19.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -8.1 (-14.9) | 141.3 (-24.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -9.4 (-13.6) | 142.2 (-25.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -10.4 (-12.6) | 139.7 (-22.7) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Away | 1-14 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#339) | 1.6 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.22 (#355) | 0.39 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.79 (#353) | 0.30 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.335 (#349) | 0.496 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 25.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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