Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +2 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -16.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-41.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -12.5 (-10.5) | 144.4 (-42.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -13.7 (-11.7) | 143.7 (-41.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -13.0 (-11.0) | 142.8 (-40.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -11.9 (-9.9) | 139.9 (-37.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | SAM 97 – 90 AAMU |
| Dec 12, 2023 | SAM 118 – 91 AAMU |
| Nov 18, 2022 | SAM 84 – 64 AAMU |
| Nov 29, 2020 | AAMU 78 – 76 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 61.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#200) | -12.8 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#127) | -1.85 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#146) | -2.75 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#161) | 0.404 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 33.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 37.1% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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