Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -18.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | SAM -2000 AAMU +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +27 | 209 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -20.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+52.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -18.6 (+8.4) | 154.2 (+54.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -18.8 (+8.2) | 153.4 (+55.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -18.6 (+8.4) | 153.8 (+55.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -17.1 (+9.9) | 156.9 (+52.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | SAM 97 – 90 AAMU |
| Nov 18, 2022 | SAM 84 – 64 AAMU |
| Dec 12, 2021 | SAM 52 – 50 AAMU |
| Nov 29, 2020 | AAMU 78 – 76 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-0 | 7-5 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#143) | -13.7 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#118) | -1.50 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#105) | -2.09 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#157) | 0.389 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 36.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 22.9% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 39.4% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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