Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -20.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +32 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | IU -19.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -18.8 (+13.2) | 131.9 (-1.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -17.6 (+14.4) | 134.6 (-4.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -19.1 (+12.9) | 132.9 (-2.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -19.1 (+12.9) | 133.4 (-3.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 58.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#43) | -5.2 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#70) | -1.32 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#64) | -1.94 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#47) | 0.431 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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