Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -4.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -3.7 (+4.7) | 138.1 (-7.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -2.9 (+3.9) | 138.1 (-7.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.2 (+3.2) | 137.9 (-6.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -2.9 (+3.9) | 139.8 (-8.8) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#134) | 6.5 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#105) | 0.75 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#128) | 0.98 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#72) | 0.561 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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