Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -12.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -10.7 (+2.3) | 130.6 (-9.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -9.3 (+3.7) | 130.9 (-9.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -9.6 (+3.4) | 130.6 (-9.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -8.9 (+4.1) | 132.2 (-11.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | HAMP 93 – 71 L-MD |
| Dec 21, 2024 | HAMP 76 – 68 L-MD |
| Dec 8, 2022 | HAMP 66 – 61 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#235) | -10.8 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#219) | -1.75 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#249) | -3.87 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#219) | 0.370 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 19.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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