Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +18 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -8.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -8.0 (+10.0) | 157.2 (-11.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -6.8 (+11.2) | 153.7 (-7.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -8.6 (+9.4) | 158.2 (-12.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -8.1 (+9.9) | 157.9 (-11.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 13-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#84) | 2.0 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#76) | -0.70 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#50) | -0.68 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#127) | 0.442 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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