Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +11 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -3.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-35.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -2.1 (-8.9) | 148.4 (-25.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -0.5 (-11.5) | 152.8 (-29.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -0.1 (-10.9) | 151.7 (-28.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -1.2 (-9.8) | 151.3 (-28.3) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2023 | MARQ 71 – 69 UCLA |
| Dec 12, 2020 | UCLA 69 – 60 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#91) | 13.5 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#23) | 2.24 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#43) | 3.11 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#21) | 0.613 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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