What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Pauley Pavilion · December 12, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread UCLA -4.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money UCLA -225 / MARQ +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCLA win
Actual UCLA +9 129 Won
Massey UCLA -11.1 (-2.1) — —
Massey Totals — 146.5 (-17.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 92% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 96% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCLA -5.9 (+3.1) 142.5 (-13.5) 75% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCLA -9.2 (-0.2) 144.7 (-15.7) 80% ✓
Baseline ML UCLA -9.4 (-0.4) 144.7 (-15.7) 79% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCLA -9.0 (+0.0) 146.4 (-17.4) 83% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 21, 2023 MARQ 71 – 69 UCLA
Dec 12, 2021 UCLA 67 – 56 MARQ

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCLA MARQ
Overall 22-10 13-14
Conference 13-6 8-11
Home 11-1 7-7
Away 5-6 6-6
Neutral 6-3 0-1
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.4 69.7
Avg Pts Against 68.4 69.8
Massey 8.9 (#45) 4.1 (#87)
Bradley-Terry 1.87 (#37) 0.71 (#109)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.83 (#41) 1.13 (#105)
RPI 0.632 (#37) 0.529 (#113)
Shooting & Four Factors UCLA MARQ
FG% 48.5% 44.2%
3PT% 37.8% 37.8%
REB / G 41.0 42.6
OREB / G 10.4 11.6
AST / TO 1.37 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.8% 51.8%
TOV% 17.5% 20.5%
ORB% 31.1% 34.3%
FT Rate 28.5% 35.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 39.2%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 17.5%
DRB% 79.7% 72.4%
Opp FT Rate 18.2% 22.9%

Game Analysis

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