Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +32 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | USU -17.8 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -18.8 (+13.2) | 149.1 (-17.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -15.1 (+16.9) | 150.1 (-18.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -16.5 (+15.5) | 149.6 (-17.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -16.3 (+15.7) | 149.6 (-17.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#59) | -5.2 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#66) | -1.17 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#52) | -1.16 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#50) | 0.424 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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