Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +26 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -24.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -20.9 (+5.1) | 146.3 (-14.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -21.7 (+4.3) | 146.5 (-14.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -20.1 (+5.9) | 147.3 (-15.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -20.1 (+5.9) | 146.2 (-14.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2024 | WAKE 85 – 80 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#31) | -8.4 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#20) | -2.16 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.63 (#11) | -3.07 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#86) | 0.389 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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