Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +5 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -2.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -0.1 (-4.9) | 141.1 (-20.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -1.8 (-6.8) | 145.6 (-24.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -1.3 (-6.3) | 146.1 (-25.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -0.8 (-5.8) | 145.2 (-24.2) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 3-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#233) | 3.9 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#142) | 1.84 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#156) | 2.14 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#134) | 0.646 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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