Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +6 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -1.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -1.7 (-4.3) | 129.8 (-1.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -0.7 (-6.7) | 133.4 (-5.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -0.1 (-5.9) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -0.3 (-6.3) | 130.9 (-2.9) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#190) | 6.2 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#211) | 1.05 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#221) | 1.59 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#211) | 0.537 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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