Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -8.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -6.8 (-14.8) | 145.7 (+0.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -3.4 (-11.4) | 145.5 (+0.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -7.1 (-15.1) | 149.3 (-3.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -7.8 (-15.8) | 146.0 (-0.0) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#131) | -1.4 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#130) | -0.83 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#129) | -1.23 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#129) | 0.425 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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