Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +17 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -10.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -9.4 (+7.6) | 147.4 (-18.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -10.8 (+6.2) | 150.6 (-21.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -10.1 (+6.9) | 151.3 (-22.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -9.8 (+7.2) | 150.8 (-21.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 15-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#69) | 1.1 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#119) | -0.36 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#107) | -0.71 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#133) | 0.454 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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