Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +18 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | NU -20.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -19.8 (-1.8) | 142.8 (-20.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -17.2 (+0.8) | 142.4 (-20.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -18.7 (-0.7) | 141.2 (-19.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -19.6 (-1.6) | 144.9 (-22.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#40) | -5.5 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#61) | -1.36 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#54) | -2.60 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#124) | 0.406 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 2.05 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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