Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -0.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -2.4 (+17.6) | 148.7 (-4.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -2.1 (+17.9) | 152.1 (-8.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -1.7 (+18.3) | 151.3 (-7.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -3.7 (+16.3) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2024 | UTU 68 – 54 DEN |
| Dec 12, 2020 | UTU 73 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#297) | -3.7 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#222) | -1.57 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#216) | -2.23 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#176) | 0.433 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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